INTRODUCTION!
We were alone, beginning from the month of March until August 2022, lamenting out loud on my Facebook Wall about our inability to meet the OPEC-approved crude oil production quota for our beloved country, Nigeria. Coming up shortly, are some excerpts from the series of essays we wrote, wherein we addressed our production shortfalls in the wake of heightened demands for petroleum products in the international markets that resulted from the Russian/Ukraine war.
In May 2022, the World Bank published a report regarding Nigeria being on top of the list of OPEC member countries with a production shortfall - not being able to meet its OPEC-approved quota. Seemingly, the Presidency and NNPC didn't consider the reports newsworthy, deserving prompt action. But we did. Consistent with the tone of the World Bank's reports, we published an essay, titled "Nigeria is Worth Saving," published May 31, 2022. In the essay, we proffered solutions on how to mitigate the hostile business climate in the Niger Delta in order to boost our crude oil production.
However, the sleeping giant began to walk in the month of August 2022, when the UK-based Guardian newspaper and numerous other international media houses published the colossal profit the Saudis oil conglomerate made from the sale of crude oil in the Second Quarter of 2022.
After the Saudi's oil windfall and our August 17 piece ("Is Nigeria Worth Saving?") on the same subject, the NNPC Boss addressed Nigerians via a news conference, and told us, amongst other disclosures, that about 80% of our crude oil production cannot be accounted for. Consequently, the Tompolo Surveillance Contract was born, and the rest is now history. Happy reading.
THE VOICE OF ONE CRYING IN THE WILDERNESS
MARCH 07, 22
"Questioning the NNPC Decision Making Skills." Barr Alex Ehimhantie Aidaghese
Why are we not meeting our OPEC Production Quota?
Why Are Modular Refineries in Imo, Edo, and Delta States NOT Refining PMS?
And how come the Nigerian enlightened class is not discussing or interested in unraveling the mystery that shrouds our inability to meet our production target or OPEC-approved quota?
That acute silence is more appalling than the bundle of lies by the NNPC.
"Speaking on the reasons why modular refineries were not producing petrol, during a plenary session at the ongoing Nigeria International Energy Summit 2022 in Abuja, the Group Executive Director, Refining, NNPC, Mustapha Yakubu, said it was due to fuel pump price regulation."
He said, “Some modular refineries should take up to 50,000 barrels per day, but because of financing you can start with 10,000 barrels and then scale up gradually to 50,000 barrels."
“What do you need to do to produce PMS? It is to put in additional investment that will put in the cracker required to produce the PMS. But in this period why they (modular refineries) cannot produce PMS is because we are under full regulation."
“So, to me, if they produce PMS today, at what cost are they going to produce it and at what cost are they going to sell under this regulated environment?”
STATEMENT OF FACT
On Wednesday last week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised Nigeria’s oil production quota from the 1.718 million barrels per day target in March to 1.735 million barrels per day in April 2022.
And while we have been missing our approved monthly production targets, we have a number of modular refineries in Edo, Delta, Imo, and other states not being given the green light to go into production.
Now, let's ask some commonsense questions.
(1) Why Are the Modular Refineries in Nigeria Not Producing Fuel?
Answer: Modular Refineries cannot produce PMS because we are under full regulation - Mustapha Yakubu, Group Executive Director, Refining, NNPC.
(2) Who set up the regulation?
Answer: Nigerians through their Reps.
(3) Who will benefit if Modular Refineries are producing fuel? Answer: Nigerians.
(4) Who will suffer an adverse impact if the regulation is set aside for the Modular Refineries to produce fuel?
Answer: No one will suffer.
And that is the ridiculousness of the Management of NNPC and its Board. Now you know why we need a Minister of Petroleum Resources who is living in the moment.
We have been missing our production quota as set by OPEC in recent times. But, due to some idiotic regulations, Modular Refineries are moribund in Edo, Imo, and Delta States - not allowed to produce petrol to meet the expanding demands nationwide.
You can see how unintelligible the people running our affairs are. They cannot rise to the occasion or think outside the box. They concoct bogus and juvenile excuses to obscure their inadequacies. And no one is questioning their decision-making skills.
I am not questioning or disputing the existence of such regulations, I'm simply questioning the reasonableness of the excuse they gave.
That you don't know how much the producers will cost the price is not a cogent excuse. It is either you leave the pricing to the market forces, or you regulate it (fix the price). Nigerians deserve better.
Nigerians deserve to know why we are not meeting our quota or production targets, and why the Modular Refineries are not in full production at this perilous time. Unless, of course, there's something President Buhari and his NNPC management are not telling Nigeria.
ASUU is on strike, and the Minister of Finance is a lamenting shortage of funds, yet we cannot meet our production targets when prices of crude oil per barrel are going through the roof. Something is definitely wrong with Aso Rock.
MARCH 20, 2022
"No Decentralization No 2023" By Barr Alex Ehimhantie Aidaghese
NNPC is under the management of the Minister of Petroleum Resources. And the Minister of Petroleum Resources is the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari.
The issue is not that the mainstay of our economy is concentrated in one hand, but the wisdom of that one hand to appreciate his incapacity and relinquish total control. That's authoritarianism. Dictatorship unhinged. And unitary system of government in the extreme.
A political system that makes it possible for one person to have cornered such power must be totally discredited and rejected for true greatness to evolve. We have crude oil on the ground, yet we cannot meet our OPEC-approved production quota. Aviation fuel is drying up, but no sustainable solutions in the horizon. And one person is sitting on top of the wealth unconcernedly or not knowing what to do.
I used to blame his power-grab proclivity and dictatorial traits on Feudalism. I may be wrong. Even the Feudal Lord understood the Concepts of Trade and Investment. Othman Dan Fodio wasn't just about conquest, but enlightenment campaign and pristine knowledge. This is naked bigotry and poverty of ideas on the extreme.
Which is more beneficial? Lagos/Badagry modern expressway through the West African neighboring countries or Katrina highway to the President's folks in the Niger Republic?
Leadership is about team building. And you are as good as the team you have in place. Nigeria and Nigerian problems have outgrown the capacity of President Buhari and the management skills of his circle of consultant friends and confidants. They lack the will to confront him with the truth and have no bold visions or measures in view.
APC Convention and Leadership struggle are the headline news, and no doubt, Mr. President's major headache. And we are all waiting for 2023 as a magic wand for all our problems. What about the meantime?
Our university education system has collapsed, and a few days ago, the President was seen smiling in a photo with his Minister of Education on his side in his residence in London. And that's a Minister who should have been fired long ago if the President truly understood the concept of leadership and performance metrics.
The best way out of the madness is the decentralization of power. For one man to exercise absolute power and control over the mainstay of our economy (crude oil) under the façade of a Mister Perfect, when the facts on the ground suggest otherwise, is the shortest route to Venezuela.
APRIL 29, 2022
"Something about the Nigerian Public Intellectuals, Pundits, and Media Analysts." By Barr Alex Ehimhantie Aidaghese
Twice in recent times, the World Bank has reported that Nigeria is unable to meet its crude oil production quota as set by OPEC.
Meanwhile, the same government that is presiding over our crude oil production is crying out loud that it has no money to settle our University Lecturers who are on strike now for more than one academic year.
Where are the public affairs pundits and writers? Why is the World Bank’s story not newsworthy before our public intellectuals? Why is our inability to meet our production quota not a topic for endless debate on social media like the Edochie Bedroom wahala?
MAY 31, 2022
"Nigeria is Worth Saving!" By Barr Alex Ehimhantie Aidaghese
About 35% of the recurring items within the Nigerian yearly budget are bogus and products of padding. Suppose we can (1), eliminate those items and lock up the perpetrators, and (2), develop prosecutorial activism and adopt the Singapore approach (send those who stole or embezzled public funds to jail without trial). In that case, we will be able to purge our MDAs of citizens like the just indicted Accountant General of the Federation, Ahmed Idris. Ultimately, we will be in a strong financial position to meet the demands of our university lecturers (ASUU) and fund our entire educational system maximally.
Adding to that, in recent times, we've not been able to meet our crude oil production quota as set by OPEC as a result of the alleged hostile investment climate in the Niger Delta. According to the World Bank's reports, we are comfortably at the top of the list of countries within the OPEC cartel that are unable to meet the surge in the demands for crude oil that was motivated by the Russian/Ukraine war.
How can we, as a nation-state, justify that presidential sabotage or tolerate it, when the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, is the Minister of Petroleum Resources?
We have a product on the ground in abundance, pleading for exploitation, unheard; there is presently an unmatched demand for the product; yet, we're crying Argentina, lamenting the hostile investment environment in the oil-producing Niger Delta, and how broke we are as a nation-state. And no member of the cabinet is speaking out or resigning.
First, we must identify the cause or causes of the unrest. Pollution is real. Unforeseen environmental catastrophe is real. And sabotage is real. Then, develop sustainable mechanisms for the total elimination of the perils. It's that simple. That's an attribute of sovereignty, the inalienable right of a nation to legislate over the use of its natural resources.
With sustainable peace in place, backed by the adoption of the "social license" principles by the IOCs and domestic investors, we should be able to meet the demands of the markets and boost our foreign exchange earning capacity steadily.
Feigning ignorance of the adverse business climate in the region is not the best approach to managing our production shortfall in the crude oil markets. Confront the problems, disrupt them, and resolve them to be able to achieve permanent peace. That is the global approach or standard.
AUGUST 14, 2022
"Which Way, Nigeria?" By Barr Alex Ehimhantie Aidaghese
I will continue to share this essay until President Buhari and his Advisers do the right thing and allow students at Nigerian public universities to go back to school. This is no longer about incompetence or poverty of ideas, but downright criminal (willful and malicious conduct) and a sin against humanity. I purposely left his cabinet out of this because the executive branch is moribund.
How else can one explain Dr. Chris Ngige (Labour) and Mallam Adamu Adamu's (Education) dismissive approach to ASUU and its demands in the face of the heightened impasse between the two parties since the inception of the 2021/22 academic year? Someone has to be a leader for a second. The term "compromise and seeing the other side" is not an aberration; otherwise, it would not have been the core element of negotiation.
August 17, 2022
"Is Nigeria Worth Saving?" By Barr Alex Ehimhantie Aidaghese
"Saudi Aramco profits Soar by 90% as energy prices rise." The Guardian of London, August 16, 2022.
According to the report, "The $48bn figure from world's biggest oil firm is thought to be one of largest quarterly profits in history... to easily beat the near $26bn it made a year earlier."
What about our NNPC and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources?
Colossal failure. Yes, we are reporting unmitigated failure, wastage, and corruption, while the rest of the oil-producing countries of the world are smiling to the bank with colossal $$$ windfall.
About three months ago, I wrote an essay on the same matter in response to World Bank's reports, stating that Nigeria is not meeting its crude oil production quota that was set by OPEC. Please, find below, some excerpts from the essay, titled "NIGERIA IS WORTH SAVING." May 31, 2022.
So, who is more credible now between the NNPC and the Presidency combined as against the author of this essay and, therefore, deserves to be the Chairman of the Board of the NNPC?
I ask this question, in light of Saudi Aramco's unprecedented quarterly profits, juxtaposed with the timely warning and appropriate solutions that the author addressed in the previously referenced essay, concerning our production shortfall and dwindling revenue.
The facts are overwhelmingly convincing; from all indications, all the president's men at the NNPC are not sufficiently educated about what is going on in the Niger Delta. Therefore, they don't deserve to continue in office, managing the mainstay of our economy - the petroleum resources.
It's either they couldn't fathom the wisdom in taking action to normalize the hostile business environment in the host communities, given the disturbing tone of the Word Bank's reports, or they simply don't appreciate the economic benefits of embracing a peace initiative.
This author covers the World Bank's reports, and succinctly articulated the appropriate solutions needed in the circumstance to stem the tide of unrest in the host community. The fact that only a cordial business environment can guarantee a steady stream of production and revenue windfall is not disputable. So, why are we lukewarm about traversing the course of peace?
Making peace and sustaining it doesn't require rocket science. What is required is a culture of social license, which is a step beyond the fundamentals of corporate social responsibility.
You're likely to spend more money on buying peace and funding all the security apparatus, compared to embracing the social license culture. (You would, however, need a consultant on the ground to assist in putting that culture in place).
And as long as the people around the oil-producing communities consider the investors, the owners of the various oil blocs, and their workers as agents of colonialism, you will never have peace in the Niger Delta.
Social license is a culture, and it can only endure if the investors can eliminate the business and social barriers between the host communities and the non-native workforce in the facilities.
You can't be living in paradise inside of your Staff Quarters, enjoying every element of social amenities, while the owners of the soil where you are milking your black gold are living in abject poverty. It's about patronage and sociocultural interactions between the natives and the workers.
If the natives or host communities consider themselves as part owners of the investment, the colossal funds we are wasting on pipeline monitoring contractors would be more than necessary to maintain a sustainable peaceful investment climate in the host communities.
AUGUST 30, 2022
"Surmounting Nigerian White-Collar Crimes." By Barr Alex Ehimhantie Aidaghese
"Churches, Mosques harboring stolen crude oil products." NNPC CEO.
The number one question is: What Would the FBI Have Done in Similar Circumstances?
Given the well-known shrinking revenues from the petroleum industry and our inability to meet OPEC production quota in recent times, Nigerians would have been happier if Mr. Mele Kyari was able to identify the culprits, arrest them, indict them, prosecute them, and send them to jail if convicted or found guilty. We want to see the faces of the culprits, standing trial at competent courts. That's the beginning of the deterrent.
The FBI doesn't come on TV to report crimes or criminal conduct for public entertainment or to hoodwink Americans into believing that indeed they are performing above expectations. No. You can only see them in action, executing a warrant of arrest, perfecting seizure of fruits of crime, and during press briefings immediately after the first court appearance of an accused or culprit.
So, it would have been better if the CEO of the NNPC, Mr. Mele Kyari, invade the mosques and churches with law enforcement agents, take possession of the stolen petroleum products, and bundle the culprits before the appropriate court the same day or the following morning. That's the FBI's Modus Operandi.
That's what I would do if I were Mr. Mele Kyari, the CEO of the NNPC, the Chairman of the EFCC, or the DG of the DSS. If I am by any means constrained from doing what I believe to be right (prosecution), I will resign.
Watching the press briefing, I'm forced to ask if Mr. Kyari has legal advisers. If the goal is to garner public sympathy, I'm not so sure that's the right approach. The public doubt on the NNPC in recent times has no parallel.
If we don't prosecute known thieves, we are making things difficult for the DSS. Of what use investigating crimes when the identified thieves are never protected and sent to jail? It is either you parade them before the public (the press) or publish their names and pictures.
We can't curtail criminal conduct in a daring society like ours in the absence of historical forces of deterrents. And as the Americans would say, you do the crime you do the time. Until we can establish a culture of prosecutorial activism and commensurate sentencing, embezzlement of public funds will not cease.
THE END,
MARCH 07, 2023
EPILOGUE
I wrote the last essay about 6 months ago (August 30, 2022), following the disclosure by the NNPC GDM that they cannot account for about 80% of our crude oil production. He added inter alia that some of the apprehended culprits used mosques and churches to hoard stolen petroleum products. As of today, March 07, 2023, I'm yet to read about NNPC Management or the Minister of Justice prosecuting anyone they alleged to have participated in warehousing stolen petroleum products in churches or mosques.
The series began exactly a year ago. And thanks to the Tompolo surveillance contact, hundreds of illegally connected crude oil pipelines have been discovered and destroyed. And I thank God for giving me the foresight and audacity to compel a powerful state-owned oil giant to heal itself.
Right now, we are not even addressing the impunity, the squandering of our riches, and the unaccountability culture of the management of the NNPC, but the illegalities of saboteurs coming from the outside. A few years ago, one GDM who was in office for less than a year, buried millions of dollars and pounds at his uncompleted building in Kaduna State. The money was seized, but was released to him later. He was never prosecuted. And as the culture is, no one talks about it.
Finally, while in graduate school for my LL.M., I did a case study on the Algerian Hydrocarbon Law and SONATRACH, the Algerian State-owned oil firm, which is similar to our NNPC. SONATRACH was ridden with guilt and corruption. It was so powerful that political leaders and aspiring political leaders dutifully pay deep obeisance to its top leadership to gain favor. Then, suddenly, a Pharaoh came to town who knew not Joseph, and the hammer fell. SONATRACH was dismantled and its top men were tried and convicted, including one of its Vice Presidents and his son.
At the time of my case study more than a decade ago, the new state-owned oil firm was one of the most profitable of its kind globally, acquiring investments and structuring lucrative deals at home and abroad.
However, a few months after my graduation, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, fired Noureddine Cherouati. He was in office for only two years. And some of the past CEOs are presently serving jail terms. At the moment, there is no untouchable character in SONATRACH - you do the crime, you must do the time. That criminal philosophy is alien in Nigeria.
Today, our NNPC is a Lord onto itself, accountable to no one or institution. Those who are in positions to regulate it are captives of its benevolent spirit. And the beat goes on, unchecked.
MARCH 07, 2023.
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